(资料图)
7月3日早盘收盘,国内期货主力合约涨多跌少,油脂油料系期货领涨。豆二、豆粕封涨停板,菜粕涨近8%,菜油涨近6%,豆油、棕榈油涨超4%,沪锡涨超3%,沪镍、鸡蛋、国际铜、生猪涨超2%。跌幅方面,沥青跌近3%,铁矿石、硅铁、焦炭、尿素、焦煤、锰硅、玻璃跌超1%。
行情点评:面积意外下调,油脂油料跳涨
USDA面积报告意外下调美豆种植面积至8350万英亩,较早先预期的8750万英亩减少400万英亩。报告后,美豆跳涨6%。国内周一油脂油料跳涨,对数据进行集中消化。对于后市:种植面积报告打开了油脂油料价格上行想象空间。逻辑在于,美豆经历最干6月,产区干旱面积增加至63%。7月上旬有零星下降。市场预期厄尔尼诺下美豆7月下半月到8月降水增加,但目前看能否如期存在变数。这意味着美豆单产大概率下调,那么美豆从丰产预期变成减产预期。宏观方面,乐观氛围继续提振市场,基于美联储加息放缓的预期和国内政策的期待。在基本面和宏观的提振下,国内油脂油料板块大概率偏强运行,也就是价格上方还有空间。操作上,单边多头思路,考虑到盘面波动幅度或加大,建议轻仓参与。(光大期货)
种植面积大幅低于预期,豆粕期货触及涨停
早盘油脂油料板块高举高打,其中豆粕、豆二、菜粕均触及涨停,据USDA,2023年美国大豆种植面积为8350.5万英亩,大幅低于路透预期的8767.3万英亩,和种植意向报告预测的8750.5万英亩。目前厄尔尼诺仍在加强,在下半年就极有可能演变为中强甚至强厄尔尼诺,从历史上看,厄尔尼诺的发生多有利于美豆单产提升,从近期降雨模型来看,降雨有逐步增加的趋势,中长期来看,美豆上方仍存在一定压力;而我国国内养殖端需求增量有限,且面临去产能压力。前期多头配置在上方遇到压力后可适当减仓止盈。(冠通期货)
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